Academic standards

- GLE 0606.5.1
- Understand the meaning of probability and how it is expressed.
- SPI 0606.5.1
- Determine the theoretical probability of simple and compound events in familiar contexts.

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Essential and guiding questions:

Discussion Questions:

- Name professions that use probability. Give an example. Many scientists and social scientists use probability, including epidemiologists, psychologists, economists, and statisticians. They predict outcomes of events, such as the incidence of diseases and the strength of the stock market.
- Imagine you are on the school debate team and the subject at hand is whether companies should drill for oil in Antarctica. What statistics would you look for if you're arguing in favor of oil exploration there? What statistics would you look for to support your argument against drilling there? What are some ways that numbers could support arguments on both sides?
- Think about numbers you may have seen in advertisements, such as "X Juice is 90 percent real juice," or "Y cereal has 35 percent of the total vitamins needed in one day." How would you write each percentage as a ratio?
- What does it mean when you hear the weather reporter predict a 10 percent chance of rain? Is that a high or low probability?
- Express the probability that your mother will let you have a sleepover next weekend as a probability, assuming that the total number of outcomes is 100. What factors would increase the probability that she would say yes? (If you finish all your homework and chores, go to bed on time.) What factors would decrease the probability that she would say yes? (If you misbehave, do not finish your homework or chores, or go to bed on time.)
- How do you think authors of The Farmer's Almanac make their predictions about weather for a year? How do you think they use probability?